KO KOSPI 200 Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Foreign investors have aggressively bought over 2 trillion won in the spot market over two days and are positioning for an upward move in the options market. Investors should bet on the upside, aligning with foreign institutional flows.

He entered a large 100 billion won position near the recent market lows and is holding for a 30% gain, citing the strong rebound in the KOSPI 200 (up 19.9% at one point) and his conviction that the Korean equity market has further upside.

Foreign institutions are heavily positioned for an upward move in KOSPI 200 options and futures. With the options expiry on August 13 only two weeks away, their payoff structure shows a clear upside bias. If the index breaks above the 200-minute moving average, that triggers a long signal. Historical V-shaped recoveries after such extreme monthly drops (like October 2008 or Black Monday) suggest the market can recover 38% of the losses to 6,570, or even 50% to 7,000, within days. Tomorrow should start with a gap up and close as a strong bullish candle, confirming the rebound.

Geopolitical tensions over the Hormuz Strait and US-Iran negotiations are keeping oil prices elevated, which threatens inflation and could force the Fed into a hawkish stance. This adds uncertainty to the market. The current technical rebound to 7,400 – 7,800 on the KOSPI should be used to trim equity exposure rather than to chase the rally, especially ahead of a three-day weekend.

KOSPI has corrected 20% from its peak amid elevated leverage, but with the earnings cycle still rising and consensus not being revised down, this level represents a short-term low. The correction is sufficient given typical 10% adjustment in similar cycles, and the 20% drop reflects the unwind of leverage, creating a good entry point.

KOSPI's PER has fallen below 8x as the index dropped under 8,000, a historically attractive valuation zone where investors can be courageous. The current selloff is driven by temporary macro and technical factors (rate fears, semiconductor noise, options expiry) rather than structural impairment, making this a long-term buying opportunity.

US Treasury yields breaking 5% on 30-year, rising geopolitical tensions with Iran, and the rapid rally in KOSPI create vulnerability for a short-term correction. He recommends preparing for a dip and watching the KOSPI 200 index, with support around 6,930.

Kim Tae-nyeon has been buying KOSPI 200 ETF daily since May 2024 as a retirement savings vehicle. The strategy has yielded 130% return, and he intends to hold forever, never selling. This reflects a strong personal conviction in the Korean equity market's long-term upward trend.